At Golden Dawn, a Youngstown fixture since 1932, a hamburger and fries costs $7 and a domestic beer runs $2 at happy hour. But the price commanding attention these days is gas, hovering near $5 a gallon across this manufacturing-ravaged corner of northeastern Ohio, where voters are deeply divided over who deserves blame.
Tom Goodman, 47, an independent contractor, points directly at the White House. "It's because of that damn war with Iran," he said at the Italian restaurant's neon bar. "Trump can go ride back into the sunset on whatever white horse he rode in on because he didn't help the country."
Chris Vitello, who runs a contracting business and describes himself as "a very pro Trumper," sees it differently. He expects the strategic Middle Eastern waterway to reopen soon, bringing oil prices crashing down and unlocking rapid economic growth. "The economy, I think, is about to burst open," he said.
This fracture over inflation, foreign policy, and economic direction will define Ohio's Senate race, which Democrats have identified as crucial to their midterm hopes. The state has become ground zero in their bid to retake Congress and constrain Trump's legislative agenda, even with the president not appearing on the ballot himself.
On Tuesday, primaries will formally clear the field for the general election: Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator defeated in 2024, is seeking to reclaim his seat against Republican incumbent Jon Husted. Husted was appointed to the position after JD Vance became vice-president, leaving two years remaining on Vance's term.
Brown's path to victory runs squarely through Youngstown and the Mahoning Valley, the heartland of blue-collar Ohio. The 73-year-old, who served in the state legislature starting in 1974 and later as secretary of state and congressman before reaching the Senate in 2006, has positioned himself as a champion of working families under assault from corporate interests.
At a brewery rally outside Youngstown, Brown described Husted as complicit in Trump's Iran conflict and the resulting energy crisis. "It's who I am. It's why I'm running. It's to take on special interest groups," he said. "People want somebody that will fight back. And fighting back means taking on the drug companies, taking on Wall Street, taking on the insurance companies and taking on big oil."
Yet Brown faces a credibility problem in his former stronghold. The once-solidly Democratic counties of the Mahoning Valley have shifted rightward, rejecting Brown in 2024 when Trump carried Ohio by 12 percentage points. That margin has widened in each successive election the former president has contested.
"Late in the campaign, Trump said, 'If you vote for Sherrod Brown, you're voting against me,' and we couldn't really answer that," Brown acknowledged in an interview.
Chris Redfern, who chaired Ohio's Democratic Party when Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012, senses momentum shifting. "We haven't had any success in a long time," he said. "For me, it feels like there is a wave coming, and I'm not sure there's anything Donald Trump and the Maga right can do to stop it."
Senate Democratic leadership has evidently agreed. Chuck Schumer, the chamber's top Democrat, has named Ohio one of four states targeted for recapture. Spending is expected to reach unprecedented levels. The Senate GOP's Super Pac has committed $79 million to Ohio, with Democrats expected to match the investment.
Polls show the race remains tight, but history suggests Trump's endorsement remains potent. Paul Sracic, a political science professor at Youngstown State University now with the Hudson Institute, noted that Trump's hold on his voters is unusually strong. "There's this faith in him that Donald Trump has that no president since FDR, I think, has had in voters," Sracic said. "It's very much about trusting him, and even when they disagree, they're not going to abandon him."
A secondary scandal may help Brown. The FirstEnergy corruption case, which unfolded during Husted's time as lieutenant governor, has shadowed his candidacy. Though Husted appeared as a defense witness and faces no charges, the association troubles voters. A 79-year-old breakfast customer at Golden Dawn named Marty McKenna expressed frustration with both candidates until he saw an advertisement linking Husted to the utility company's misconduct. "I liked him until I saw that ad," he said.
Some recent defections hint at movement. Ron Yacobony, 71, voted libertarian for president two years ago but backed Republican Bernie Moreno over Brown in the Senate race. This year, he's planning to vote straight Democratic, alarmed by what he calls presidential overreach. His wife, Darlene, who supported Trump and Moreno in 2024, is now considering flipping to Democrats, saying the president "has gone a little overboard this time."
Youngstown itself remains a living monument to broken promises. The collapse of the steel industry in the 1970s triggered factory closures that hollowed the city, a wound that no politician has successfully healed. As McKenna noted while listing decades of failed political pledges: "We're a perfect example of being lied to."
Author James Rodriguez: "Brown's bet that Trump fatigue can overcome the economic headwinds and Republican organization is ambitious, but the skepticism from even swing voters suggests it's far from certain."
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