Donald Trump arrives in China later this month facing a delicate test. Beijing has made clear that it sees the visit as an opening to reshape the relationship on Taiwan, viewing a transactional president as potential leverage in pursuit of its long-term goal of unification.
China's foreign minister Wang Yi signaled as much in a recent call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, explicitly linking Taiwan to broader bilateral cooperation. The message was unmistakable: concessions on Taiwan could be part of a larger trade-and-diplomacy package. Beijing would particularly welcome a pullback on US arms sales, which reached $11 billion in a package announced late last year.
Xi Jinping has made Taiwan's unification central to his political legacy. Intelligence assessments suggest that three years ago, he directed military commanders to prepare for invasion by 2027. Yet Beijing prefers to avoid the military route if possible. A blockade, tested in December drills, would carry enormous economic costs and risk rapid escalation. Instead, China appears to be banking on a strategy of building military strength while steadily tightening the screws, gradually making unification seem inevitable.
A small shift in US rhetoric during Trump's visit could help Beijing's narrative. Even rhetoric matters in shaping how Taiwan's population views its own future. Currently, roughly two-thirds of Taiwanese see China as a major threat, and the share identifying as exclusively Taiwanese has climbed to 63% from less than 20% in 1992. That represents a generational shift in how the island sees itself.
Beijing is playing multiple angles at once. Last month, Xi hosted Cheng Li-wun, leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang party, at their first such meeting in a decade. The opposition party advocates warmer ties to China and has blocked a $40 billion special defense budget proposed by the ruling government. China offered economic incentives while simultaneously tightening intimidation tactics. Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te attempted a diplomatic trip to one of the island's few remaining allies this past weekend, but faced restrictions when other nations revoked overflight permits.
Experts believe China is unlikely to pursue military action in the near term. But the window may not stay open forever. Another US president might be tougher on Taiwan. Meanwhile, the current administration is distracted by the Middle East, defense stocks are depleted, and Taiwan's defense spending increases have yet to fully materialize. Beijing may sense a moment when conditions align.
The stakes for Taiwan as a functioning democracy are clear. Any ambiguity from Washington about commitment to the island could encourage further miscalculation by Beijing. The risk of accident or misstep rises when signals become mixed. The US itself has a stake in maintaining the status quo, not testing whether great powers can simply remake the map.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump shouldn't mistake a trade opportunity for a chance to gamble with Taiwan's freedom, no matter what Beijing dangles across the negotiating table."
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