For years, Donald Trump weaponized conspiracy theories with ruthless efficiency. He pushed the "birther" lie about Barack Obama. He promoted baseless claims about a shadowy "deep state." He continues to insist, without evidence, that the 2020 election was stolen. But that power is slipping away.
In the days after Saturday's White House Correspondents' Association dinner, conspiracy theories about the event flooded social media from both left and right. The claims: the assassination attempt was staged to boost Trump's image. No evidence supports this. What mattered was who was promoting it. Alex Jones, the right-wing conspiracist who recently split with Trump over Iran policy, posted the theory on social media. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who also broke ranks over Iran and Trump's handling of the Epstein files, questioned the official account. On the left, prominent progressive podcasters released an episode alleging "Major False Flags" in the shooting aftermath.
Trump appeared genuinely caught off guard. "Usually it takes a little bit longer," he told CBS on Sunday. "Usually they wait about two or three months to start saying that."
The White House moved quickly to counter the narratives. "Anyone who thinks President Trump staged his own assassination attempts is a complete moron," spokesman Davis Ingle said. Sen. Bernie Moreno, a Trump ally present at the dinner, was more blunt on NBC News: "For the people who think what I experienced personally on Saturday was staged, they need to put the phone down, go outside and touch grass."
The fracture runs deeper than one event. Conservative influencers who built their platforms promoting pro-Trump conspiracy theories have begun breaking with him. Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens have distanced themselves from the president. In response, Trump lashed out publicly, calling them "NUT JOBS" and mocking specific theories they had advanced.
The rift accelerated over two issues: Trump's refusal to release or fully probe the Epstein files despite campaign promises to do so, and his escalating conflict with Iran. Some former Trump backers have gone so far as to demand his removal from office over the Iran policy, while simultaneously promoting theories that Israeli leaders control him.
A former senior Trump campaign official acknowledged the damage. "It's a real problem," they said, pointing to visible softening in Trump's approval numbers with Republicans. In April, 83 percent of Republicans approved of Trump's job performance, down 4 points from earlier in the year. Strong approval dropped from 58 percent to 52 percent. Trump's overall job approval has sunk to its lowest point in his second term as voters worry about the economy and the Iran conflict.
Some Trump backers have held firm. Former administration official Dan Bongino and podcaster Benny Johnson remain loyal. Steve Bannon, the former White House adviser and MAGA media figure, suggested that Trump's relationships with media personalities are transactional and flexible. Joe Rogan supported Trump in 2024 but has been critical of some initiatives in office. In April, Rogan appeared with Trump anyway to promote research into the drug ibogaine.
Yet the broader trajectory shows real slippage. Pro-Trump outlets like The Daily Wire, Breitbart, and One America News Network have lost audience share, while Rogan, Owens, and Carlson remain among YouTube's top podcasts. Brian Friedberg, a Harvard Kennedy School researcher studying online political influencers, said it remains unclear whether Trump's fractured media ecosystem translates to gains for Democrats or whether it signals something stranger: a merging of reactionary right and conspiratorial left on platforms like X, rewarded by recommendation algorithms but lacking clear real-world impact.
The left faces an awkward reckoning. For years, Democrats denounced Trump for cozying up to conspiracy theorists. Now some on the left are considering welcoming former Trump backers who have turned critical. Reps. Jamie Raskin of Maryland and Ro Khanna of California have suggested the party should embrace figures like Greene if they align on specific issues. Khanna appeared with Greene in a joint interview and credited her and Carlson for anti-war advocacy that he claims influenced Trump to step back from threatening Iran.
"We should find common cause on specific issues," Khanna told NBC News. "We are the party of redemption, and we should not demonize people who voted for Donald Trump." He suggested that conspiracy theories often arise from legitimate anger at entrenched power structures, even when the theories themselves are false.
Not all Democrats agree. Some worry that welcoming high-profile conspiracy theorists, even on narrow policy grounds, carries toxicity that could undermine party credibility. Democratic strategist Mike Nellis distinguished between regular people listening to conspiracy content and prominent peddlers of false narratives. "I'm willing to engage with them, but I wouldn't give them a speaking slot at the DNC," he said of figures like Carlson and Owens.
Nellis has been surprised by the volume of conspiracy theories circulating on the left since Saturday. "I've been getting yelled at, like, people yelling at me, going, 'Mike, you're naive. You don't understand the threat of Donald Trump,'" he said after telling supporters he did not believe the shooting was staged.
A survey by the Manhattan Institute in February found that nearly half of registered Democrats polled believed Trump's 2024 assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania was orchestrated by his own supporters. More broadly, research published by the National Academy of Sciences in June found that over 75 percent of Americans subscribe to at least one conspiracy theory.
The political realignment defies traditional left-right categories. The former Trump campaign official compared it to the populist crossover of 2016, when some Bernie Sanders voters backed Trump in the general election, and to the merger of Trump's movement with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s in 2024. "It's not a left/right straight line anymore," they said. "It's more like a horseshoe. And the rallying principle is conspiracy theory, like revolt against the man."
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump spent years riding a wave of conspiracy theories he couldn't fully control, and now that wave is crashing over him instead. The irony is bitter, but the political consequences are real."
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