Italy's prime minister once cultivated proximity to Donald Trump as a political asset. Now that relationship is crumbling, and Giorgia Meloni faces a difficult choice about whether to cling to Washington or pivot back to Europe.
The rupture became unmissable last month when Trump publicly attacked Pope Leo XIV after the pontiff criticized US military operations against Iran. For Meloni, a conservative Catholic leader who has built her image partly on national identity, silence was impossible. She condemned Trump's words as "unacceptable" and defended papal dignity. Trump responded with personal insults directed at her.
The immediate trigger was the Iran conflict. When Meloni refused to join US strikes against Iran, Trump told an Italian newspaper he was "shocked" at her. "I thought she had courage, but I was wrong," he said. The war's economic consequences rippled through Italy at the petrol pump, souring public opinion on both Trump and Meloni's alignment with him.
For years, Meloni had walked a careful line. She positioned herself as a bridge between Trump's nationalist movement and mainstream European politics, maintaining pragmatic ties with EU leaders while courting the US right. The strategy seemed to enhance her standing as a serious, responsible conservative leader capable of operating in multiple worlds.
But the arrangement yielded little for Italy in concrete terms. When Italy ceded to Trump on tariffs or defense spending, it did so as part of Europe's broader response. When it resisted him on Ukraine or Greenland, it acted through EU coordination, not bilateral leverage with Washington. Meloni got the association with Trump without the actual power to shape outcomes.
The Iran war exposed that limitation decisively. Italians saw not a president willing to negotiate with allies but one seeking to subordinate them. The international system looked structurally unstable. Domestically, Meloni's closeness to Trump became a liability. A recent referendum on judicial reform showed voters punished her for the association.
She is now trying to manage fallout on two fronts. Short term, her defiance of Trump has offered political benefits. She has rebranded herself as a defender of Italian interests and the Catholic Church. Opposition parties have been slow to capitalize on her previous Trump alignment, even offering muted solidarity.
But longer term, the math grows harder. Meloni is attempting to rebuild ties with Washington while deepening ties with Europe. She attended a recent Paris summit on the Strait of Hormuz and made a point of physically embracing Emmanuel Macron, a figure traditionally despised by Italian far-right politics. The move signaled a recalibration toward the continent.
Trump administration officials, meanwhile, have attempted reconciliation through unusual channels. The proposal that Italy replace Iran at this year's World Cup, reportedly floated by US special envoy Paolo Zampolli, was pitched as an indirect peace offering. Italian ministers quickly rejected the idea. The clumsy approach risked making Meloni look undignified, eroding the political capital she had gained by standing firm.
Meloni thus stands at a fork. She can lean decisively toward Europe or re-engage Washington on Trump's terms. Her political history suggests she prefers to avoid binary choices, but circumstances may compel one. If Europe continues to be shut out of key security and economic decisions while Trump destabilizes the international system, the Trump association could become a serious political liability heading into campaign season.
Italy's next general election is scheduled for no later than December 2027. Meloni will enter that campaign with no major reform achievements, an economy that is sputtering, and a deteriorating security environment. Many Italians will blame Trump for the last problem. For a leader who once calculated that Trump proximity boosted her standing, that math has fundamentally shifted.
Author James Rodriguez: "Meloni thought she could have Trump's ear without Trump's baggage, but the Iran war and his personal attacks proved that fantasy. Now she has to choose between a fading Trump alliance and a genuinely interested Europe."
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