General Motors is counting on a half-billion-dollar refund after the Supreme Court invalidated some of Donald Trump's most aggressive trade levies, prompting the automaker to lift its earnings expectations for the year.
The Detroit giant updated its 2026 outlook on Tuesday, projecting earnings before interest and taxes between $13.5 billion and $15.5 billion, up from its previous range of $13 billion to $15 billion. The boost hinges on recovering $500 million in tariffs that were ruled illegal earlier this year.
GM also cut its expected tariff bill for 2026 to $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, compared with an earlier estimate of $3 billion to $4 billion. The company confirmed it has not yet received the refund and cannot pinpoint a timeline, though it expects the payment to materialize based on the court ruling.
In the first quarter, GM reported $2.63 billion in earnings on $43.62 billion in revenue. CEO Mary Barra struck an optimistic tone in her shareholder letter, writing that despite operating in a "very dynamic environment," the company maintains "solid growth" and a strong financial foundation to pursue its long-term strategy.
The Supreme Court's February decision struck down tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. Those duties covered reciprocal levies on nearly every country, so-called trafficking tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, and separate charges on nations including Brazil and India, all declared under a national emergency.
Thousands of companies are now pursuing refunds. The Customs and Border Protection agency launched an online claims portal last week. Once approved, refunds will take 60 to 90 days to process, though the system is rolling out in phases with only certain tariff categories eligible initially.
CBP estimates more than 330,000 importers paid roughly $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs across over 53 million shipments. But while companies celebrate this victory, other tariffs remain firmly in place. Trump imposed additional duties under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act on steel, aluminum, autos and other goods, and those costs continue to hit manufacturers like GM.
The administration has signaled more tariffs are coming. Trump has publicly criticized companies warning of price hikes from his policies and has used tariff threats as leverage in negotiations. Last week, the president said he would "remember" companies that decline to seek IEEPA refunds, telling CNBC he thinks it would be "brilliant if they don't do that."
Author James Rodriguez: "A $500 million cushion helps GM weather the tariff storm, but don't mistake a refund for relief, when the larger trade war machinery is still running full speed."
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