President Trump on Thursday criticized the explosion of gambling and prediction markets worldwide, calling the trend lamentable and saying he had never favored such betting. Yet his administration is actively working to expand and legitimize these same markets, while Trump himself stands to benefit financially as his media company prepares to launch its own prediction market platform.
"You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about lucrative bets placed around potential conflict with Iran. "I don't like it conceptually, but it is what it is now."
The contradiction between Trump's public skepticism and his administration's policy moves on prediction markets reveals the complexity of regulating an industry with high-stakes players and overlapping interests. Trump Media announced in October that it would integrate prediction markets into Truth Social through a partnership with Crypto.com. Trump transferred his majority stake in the company to a revocable trust before taking office, with his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., serving as sole trustee.
The Truth Social prediction market feature is slated to begin beta testing soon, followed by a full U.S. launch and eventual global expansion.
Trump Jr. deepens the family's exposure to the sector. He is an investor in Polymarket, the leading prediction market platform, and a strategic adviser to Kalshi, its main competitor. A representative for Trump Jr. said last month that he does not interface with the federal government regarding his company roles and has no influence over administration policies on prediction markets.
The Trump administration has made several concrete moves to bolster online betting markets since taking office. It ended a Biden-era effort to restrict Polymarket's U.S. operations. The Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed suit this month against Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois over their attempts to regulate prediction market sites, arguing that only the CFTC holds regulatory authority.
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said his agency will "continue to safeguard its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets and defend market participants against overzealous state regulators." Connecticut's attorney general pushed back, pledging to defend what he called "commonsense consumer protection laws" against what he characterized as unlicensed gambling.
Trump downplayed charges filed this week against U.S. special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly used knowledge of a classified raid targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to win nearly $400,000 on Polymarket. Trump said he was unfamiliar with the case and compared it to Pete Rose, who was banned from baseball for betting on his own team.
"That's like Pete Rose betting on his own team," Trump said. "If he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team. I'll look into it."
The White House emphasized that Trump's positions align with safeguarding the public interest. White House spokesman Davis Ingle said Trump is committed to prohibiting members of Congress and other government officials from exploiting nonpublic information for financial gain. "The only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people," Ingle said.
White House counsel David Warrington added that "the President has no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities" and that "President Trump performs his constitutional duties in an ethically sound manner."
Trump's relationship with gambling has evolved significantly over the decades. In the 1980s, he owned multiple Atlantic City casinos, which he touted as glamorous and successful ventures. In the 1990s, he testified before Congress against casinos operated by Native American reservations, accusing competitors of mob connections. His own casinos eventually filed for bankruptcy.
But by 2011, Trump spoke favorably about online gaming, telling Forbes that legislation enabling it was necessary because "many other countries are doing it and like usual the U.S. is just missing out."
The CFTC has framed prediction markets as legitimate financial tools requiring appropriate oversight. Selig said in January that his agency supports the "responsible development" of prediction markets and emphasized their role in the broader financial system. He disputed characterizations of CFTC-regulated markets as unregulated, stating his agency employs sophisticated surveillance systems to monitor for insider trading and fraud.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan defended his platform's compliance efforts on Friday, saying the company works proactively with authorities on suspicious activity and flagged the Van Dyke case. "The transparency afforded by onchain markets makes global compliance more effective than ever," Coplan said. "Every trade is public, permanent, and auditable."
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's sudden qualms about betting markets ring hollow when his company is actively building one and his son is profiting from existing platforms."
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