The rock-solid alliance between Washington and Jerusalem is fracturing in ways not seen for generations. Public backing for Israel has collapsed to historic lows, and the political earthquake is reshaping how both parties approach military aid and Middle East strategy heading into 2028.
A Pew Research poll released last week found 60% of American adults now hold an unfavorable view of Israel, jumping 7 percentage points in a single year. The shift cuts across age groups and parties, with majorities under 50 in both political camps now viewing Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu negatively.
Senate Democrats are the canary in the coal mine. When Bernie Sanders introduced a resolution opposing arms sales to Israel in 2023, it mustered just 15 Democratic votes. A similar measure last July won 27. On Thursday, a vote against supplying Caterpillar bulldozers to Gaza drew a record 40 Senate Democrats. Another measure to block sales of 1,000-pound bombs failed 36-63, still a dramatic increase from historical baselines.
More striking than the vote tallies is who cast them. Several Democratic senators eyeing 2028 presidential runs have flipped their positions on military aid. Jon Hoffman, a foreign-policy analyst at the Cato Institute, said the shift reflects political reality taking shape.
"I think it's going to be very difficult for a 2028 Democratic primary candidate to win if they do not openly disavow US aid to Israel," Hoffman said. "None of the senators publicly considering running for president on the left voted against it."
Mark Kelly, Arizona's senior senator, voted for the latest resolution. "The United States and Israel are fighting a war against Iran without a clear strategy or goal," he said. "This is not making us safer."
Ruben Gallego, a Democratic senator who once backed Israeli weapons sales but now opposes them, was blunt about the political damage. "Netanyahu really screwed up the politics of the Middle East and is destroying the bipartisan nature of support for Israel," he told reporters.
The Gaza conflict triggered the breakdown. More than 72,000 Palestinians have died since Israel's October 2023 offensive began. Combined with escalating tensions over Iran and extremist violence in the West Bank, the human toll has turned American public opinion decisively against the war.
Josh Paul, a former official at the State Department's bureau of political-military affairs who resigned over lack of oversight on Israeli arms sales, explained how the two parties frame the issue differently. "On the Democratic side, it's hinged to human rights and international law. On the Republican side, it's more about taxpayer funding or whether this is America First or Israel First," he said.
The shift extends to groups traditionally allied with Israel. J Street, a liberal advocacy organization that branded itself as "pro-Israel, pro-peace," announced a historic reversal this week. The group now opposes direct US funding for Israeli arms purchases, even defensive systems like the Iron Dome, marking what its leadership called a "fundamental reassessment" of the relationship.
Jeremy Ben-Ami, J Street's founder, said American taxpayers financing Israeli military operations has become politically toxic. "It is really causing an additional level of anger that things the Netanyahu government is doing are being financed by American dollars," he said. "The more Gaza continues to suffer, the more the West Bank situation deteriorates, the more the Iran conflict continues, you have to say out loud that it's time to stop paying for it."
The 2028 campaign will test how far the shift extends. Democratic candidates may face primary pressure to reject military aid wholesale. Republicans, meanwhile, will likely split between Trump's foreign-policy nationalism and traditional establishment support for Israel.
White House policy won't pivot overnight. But the consensus that sustained decades of automatic Israeli military support is dissolving faster than either party anticipated.
Author James Rodriguez: "Netanyahu's political miscalculation has handed Democrats a wedge issue they can't ignore in 2028, and that's a seismic shift for a relationship Washington treated as untouchable."
Comments