Democrats are on a winning streak in special House elections under Trump's second term, outperforming their 2024 results by an average of 18 points across six contests. The pattern holds steady as New Jersey's 11th District prepares for another special election Thursday, where Democrat Analilia Mejia is expected to win by roughly 30 points in a district that backed Kamala Harris by 9.
The numbers are striking. In each special election since Trump returned to office, Democrats have exceeded their previous performance by at least 13 points, with the largest margin reaching 25 points. Political analyst Steve Kornacki notes that even in a neutral political environment, the seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill would remain solidly Democratic. But the current climate is anything but neutral.
The surge reflects a sharp divide in voter enthusiasm between the two parties. College-educated Democrats, energized by opposition to Trump, are turning out in force for special elections. The Republican base, particularly infrequent voters who showed up for Trump in 2024, lacks the same activation level. In low-turnout special elections, this imbalance can produce outsized results that don't necessarily predict general election outcomes.
History offers a cautionary tale for Democrats reading too much into these victories. During Biden's presidency, Democrats posted dramatic overperformances in special House elections even when the political environment favored Republicans. In Ohio last June, Democrats came within 9 points in a district Trump had carried by 29. Party strategists hailed it as a sign of strength heading into November. Trump's decisive victory in Ohio later suggested the special election result was misleading.
A more relevant comparison may be Trump's first term. Between 2017 and 2018, Democrats averaged a 13-point overperformance in pure two-candidate House special elections compared with the previous presidential race. Those results resemble current patterns, but the outcome was decidedly different. Democrats gained 40 House seats and flipped the chamber in 2018, though it remains unclear whether the special elections predicted that shift or merely reflected a temporarily motivated base while Trump's low approval ratings dragged the party down.
Two House members resigned Wednesday amid ongoing misconduct investigations, shifting the chamber's balance. Rep. Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, and Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, stepped down before their colleagues could move to expel them. Both faced House Ethics Committee investigations into alleged sexual misconduct involving current or former staff members.
Swalwell's resignation preempts the ethics inquiry, though law enforcement investigations can continue. The Manhattan district attorney's office has opened a probe into Swalwell focused on an alleged assault. A California woman filed a new allegation Wednesday, claiming Swalwell drugged, raped, and choked her in a hotel room in 2018, with her legal team planning to report the incident to law enforcement later that day.
Swalwell's attorney, Sara Azari, issued a statement denying all allegations. "These accusations are false, fabricated, and deeply offensive," Azari said, characterizing them as a "calculated and transparent political hit job." The congressman previously apologized for making "mistakes" while denying sexual assault allegations.
With both departures, Republicans now hold a 216-213 majority over Democrats. That advantage will grow slightly when Clay Fuller of Georgia is sworn in Thursday to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned earlier this year.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Special election momentum can blind parties to harder truths about November's map, and these Democratic wins may simply reflect who shows up when turnout bottoms out."
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