Europe wanted no part of it. For weeks, the continent maintained a sensible distance from the conflict in Iran, arguing it bore no responsibility for a war it didn't start and couldn't control. Keir Starmer's government in particular found rare alignment: staying neutral was what Labour wanted to do, what made political sense, and what the British public backed. That comfortable position just fell apart.
The UK has ruled out joining Trump's new naval blockade of Iran, which aims to choke off Iranian oil exports while forcing open the Strait of Hormuz to everyone else. But stepping aside no longer shields Europe from the consequences. The moment oil prices spiked and stock markets tumbled at the opening bell Monday, this stopped being America's problem alone.
The economic shockwaves are already spreading. Rachel Reeves found her planned IMF meetings transformed into a crisis summit before she landed in Washington. Global growth forecasts are being quietly revised downward as analysts brace for prolonged energy disruption. The poorest nations face what the UN is calling "development in reverse." In Britain, the Resolution Foundation warns that typical household living standards will likely fall this year instead of rising, with only the poorest shielded from surging gas bills. Small businesses already stretched are bleeding cash. White van traders running on diesel are particularly exposed.
The risks go deeper than energy prices. If goods stop flowing normally through the Gulf, shortages loom for medicines, fertilizers, and helium, which is essential for hospital MRI scanners and semiconductor manufacturing. A global supply crunch isn't theoretical anymore. It's the next crisis waiting to happen.
Trump's latest escalation reveals a fundamental problem: he wants out of this war but can't figure out how. A few weeks back, he threatened to obliterate Iranian civilization, then backpedaled just as fast. He's dispensed with much of the diplomatic expertise that once existed in the Oval Office, so now he defaults to what he always does when cornered: turn up the aggression. But he's doing it from weakness. Americans booed him at a mixed martial arts event in Miami, angry that gas prices are climbing again. Maga loyalists are fracturing, with Vice President JD Vance reportedly distancing himself from the strategy. Viktor Orban's electoral defeat in Hungary sends a stark message back to Washington: voters won't tolerate populists who fail to improve their lives.
There's an awkward truth emerging from this mess: Trump now needs help. And that means Europe, oddly enough, holds some leverage. Boris Johnson, just returned from the US, told an Italian newspaper that while Britain was right to avoid joining air strikes on Iran, it's now in Europe's clear interest to help the Americans find an off-ramp. The payoff? Use willingness to stabilize the Gulf as a bargaining chip to secure stronger US backing for Ukraine before Vladimir Putin exploits this obvious rift inside NATO.
Johnson isn't suggesting European troops join another naval offensive, and he's right that risks aren't worth it. But there's a legitimate role for diplomacy, for offering technical support like autonomous mine hunting, and for finding back channels into corners of the US administration that quietly want this to end. Europe needs emissaries Trump respects, people who haven't spent weeks denouncing him publicly. Even King Charles's upcoming state visit might serve a purpose here.
The core of Johnson's argument holds: a wounded Trump lashing out is dangerous for everyone. A blocked strait triggers the economic gridlock that threatens every ambition Labour has for Britain. America's crisis has become ours by default. Staying neutral isn't an option anymore.
Author James Rodriguez: "Europe can't sit on the sidelines pretending this doesn't matter, but it also shouldn't let Trump drag it into another conflict dressed up as helping a friend."
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