Eric Swalwell's abrupt departure from California's gubernatorial contest has torn open what was already a fractured Democratic primary, leaving the field wide open just weeks before voters cast their ballots in the nation's largest blue state.
The congressman announced his resignation Monday night following sexual misconduct allegations. His exit scrambles a race that had lacked any commanding front-runner, with early voting set to begin in roughly three weeks.
Swalwell apologized for "mistakes in judgment" while denying what he called "false allegations." His campaign suspended just as major labor organizations rescinded their endorsements over the weekend, signaling a swift collapse of his support structure.
With ballots already printed and the primary using a top-two format regardless of party affiliation, the sudden vacuum has triggered aggressive repositioning across the Democratic field. Former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire activist Tom Steyer appear poised to benefit most, though the math remains murky with so many candidates still competing.
"The Swalwell news upends a race that was already upended," said Ted Lempert, a former Democratic assemblyman who teaches political science at UC Berkeley. "Porter and Steyer seemingly stand the most to gain, but there are a lot of undecided."
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has moved aggressively to exploit the opening. Despite polling in single digits, his campaign and allied groups are launching a $14 million advertising blitz across broadcast television, cable, and digital platforms. The push targets Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Diego starting this week.
Mahan's framing positions him as the fresh alternative to household names with baggage. He jabbed at his rivals over the weekend, noting that Steyer has spent over $100 million in recent months yet remains stuck below 15% support, while Porter carries the weight of a staff management controversy from last year.
"We haven't even started spending money yet," Mahan said. "So as far as I'm concerned, this race is wide open." His campaign's spokesperson went further, describing Mahan as "the only leading candidate without real baggage in this race."
Meanwhile, Steyer continued consolidating. He picked up endorsements from three state lawmakers who had previously backed Swalwell over the weekend. Since the start of 2025, his campaign has spent more than $108 million on advertising, nearly 12 times the spending of his closest competitor.
Porter's camp countered by circulating internal polling showing that nearly half of Swalwell's supporters listed her as their second choice, compared to just 14% naming Steyer. The former congresswoman has maintained competitive standing despite minimal paid advertising, her campaign emphasized.
The Democratic field remains crowded even without Swalwell. Seven prominent Democrats are still competing, along with two notable Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco. California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks had set a Wednesday deadline for nonviable candidates to withdraw, but no one is expected to drop out.
Swalwell's name will remain on printed ballots despite the Democratic Party withdrawing its endorsement. Major labor unions including the Service Employees International Union California, the California Teachers Association, and the California Medical Association all rescinded their support over the weekend.
The power broker void has left some heavy hitters stranded. Billionaire businessman Stephen Cloobeck, who dropped his own bid to endorse Swalwell in November, announced he was not only pulling his support but leaving the Democratic Party entirely. "They cannot lead," he said. "They have no voice."
Even former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown acknowledged the difficulty of the moment. When asked whether he had settled on a candidate to support, he replied bluntly: "No. I'm still trying to find somebody who might be able to win, and so far I haven't found him."
The June 2 primary will send the top two finishers to the general election regardless of party. Democrats have feared a worst-case scenario where two Republicans advance, completely shutting them out. That calculus now depends heavily on how Swalwell's supporters redistribute themselves in the coming weeks.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Swalwell's exit exposes just how thin most of these candidates remain outside their own bases, and Mahan's sudden visibility proves that in a crowded primary, money and determination can matter as much as name recognition."
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