JD Vance has landed what may be the most consequential diplomatic assignment of his career: leading U.S. negotiations to end a conflict he openly questioned before it began.
The vice president is now positioned as the Trump administration's primary negotiator with Iran, a role formalized this week during a Cabinet meeting where the president highlighted Vance's involvement alongside advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The assignment puts Vance in an unusual spot. He spent months before the war raising internal objections about its duration, feasibility, and strategic logic. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's prewar assurances about quick victory and potential regime collapse struck Vance as overly optimistic, according to multiple U.S. and Israeli officials.
Now he must find a path to peace while managing pressure from multiple directions, including what administration insiders suspect is a coordinated effort by some Israeli officials to undermine his credibility.
Why Vance Gets the Job
Administration officials argue that Vance's seniority and well-known wariness toward open-ended military commitments make him a more credible negotiator with Iranian leadership than Witkoff or Kushner, who managed two previous failed diplomatic rounds. One senior official described the calculus bluntly: "If the Iranians can't strike a deal with Vance, they don't get a deal. He's the best they're gonna get."
Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators have been quietly working to set up talks. On Thursday, Trump extended his negotiating deadline. Iranian officials indicated through mediators they're awaiting approval from "top leadership" before committing to in-person discussions. If a summit materializes, Vance could face off with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament.
The White House used Vance's appointment itself as a diplomatic signal, telling mediators to emphasize to Iran that Trump's willingness to deploy the vice president proved the administration's seriousness.
Vance has already logged extensive back-channel communications with Iranian officials, multiple calls with Netanyahu, and meetings this week with senior Emirati and Qatari officials focused on the war, potential talks, and military aid.
The Netanyahu Friction
A Monday phone call between Vance and Netanyahu reportedly sparked tension. Vance brought up instances where Netanyahu's prewar predictions had fallen short of reality, specifically regarding the likelihood of a popular uprising to topple Iran's government.
"Before the war, Bibi really sold it to the president as being easy, as regime change being a lot likelier than it was. And the VP was clear-eyed about some of those statements," according to a U.S. source familiar with the exchange.
The next day, a right-wing Israeli newspaper owned by Republican donor Miriam Adelson published a story claiming Vance had shouted at Netanyahu over the issue of settler violence in the West Bank. Multiple U.S. and Israeli sources called the account false. Vance's advisers suspect it leaked from the Israeli side as a hit piece, though Netanyahu's office denied planting it and said it had actually pushed back against the story with other outlets.
Administration officials began privately concluding that some elements within the Israeli government were attempting to damage Vance, possibly because they view him as insufficiently hawkish. Israeli officials have categorically denied such efforts.
The intrigue deepened when Vance adviser Andrew Surabian called out a CNN report about Iran preferring to negotiate with Vance as a "coordinated foreign propaganda op," though he stopped short of naming Israel. An administration official later told Axios more directly: "It's an Israeli op against JD." No independent evidence has emerged to confirm such a campaign.
Vance's actual position on Israel remains more nuanced than the noise suggests. He considers himself supportive of the country but has grown concerned about potential misalignment between Israeli and American objectives as the conflict drags on.
The administration is also preparing for failure. If diplomacy collapses, Trump officials are considering a significant military escalation.
Before war erupted, Vance chaired multiple National Security Council meetings to examine military options. He ultimately supported using overwhelming force to achieve swift victory once Trump decided to proceed, even as he maintained private reservations about the venture.
An Iraq War veteran, Vance warned two days before the bombing campaign began: "I do think we have to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. I also think that we have to avoid over-learning the lessons of the past."
Vance currently expects the war to continue for several more weeks, according to U.S. and Israeli sources.
A source close to Vance summarized his approach: "He has his own views, but he is going to work according to Trump instructions, and try and achieve an outcome that the president likes."
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